Betting on the 2010 Kentucky Derby

So far, Lookin at Lucky is already looking like The 2010 Kentucky Derby Favorite, but that doesn’t make him the best horse to bet. Yes Bob Baffert’s two year old anomaly has many fans and bettors excited, but history has taught us all a different lesson about how to bet the Kentucky Derby. Most of the time, favorite horses that are hyped up with speed and invincible talent are the ones that let people down the most. In addition, favorite horses tend to have less than great paybacks on their high odds to win anyway.

So what does that all mean for this year? Well 2010 is no different than any other year in that any horse that makes it to post will surely be a contender. There are no duds in the Kentucky Derby, and that’s one of the reasons this race in particular drives a peak amount of bets across ticket windows both real and virtual. This year, consider some important factors and strategies before placing your bet on the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1) Take a Chance - Last Year’s Derby Winner, Mine that bird was a 50-1 Longshot (According to Vegas odds.) Two bucks would have been a hundred dollar score. Why not pick one favorite and make a small bet with high odds. Remember it’s when you’re betting it has less to do with the horse that wins, and more to do with how one bets the race. If you think only about front runners, your income will always be limited. Don’t just pick any horse however. Try to pick a longshot that seems out of place, underrated or not as well known. Lesser known picks can fare just as well as the popular names. So do your homework.

2) Consider the Prep Races - The last group of serious Grade I Races in March and April can be great indicators to which horses have the potential to win big. Santa Anita, The Florida Derby, and The Blue Grass Stakes in particular tend to be significant races but derby winners have come from many other races also to finish first in the Kentucky Derby.

The Florida Derby was taken recently by 20-1 longshot by Jockey Jose Lezcano and his horse, Ice Box. Trailing respectively was also Pleasant Prince followed by the still very popular Rule down at Gulfstream. In this case, it is not important to stake your beliefs on a first place finisher. The grueling hunt to get into the derby doesn’t always indicate how a horse will compete come race day. In this case Rule just finished third, but he is still very much alive and gunning for Derby contention. Running with confidence and finishing in the top three is a great sign this late in the prep season.